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It’s not black and white. It’s grey, a probability whether a particular carrer option will be best for you.
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You are not special. Consider the base rates. Start with them and tweak it according to your ‘special’ traits. Consider career trajectories of similar people. Reach out to them.
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Focus on acquiring specific knowledge.
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Many people overestimate what they can achieve in one year and underestimate what they can achieve in 10 years.
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Look backwards from where you want to be.
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All the best things in life come from compound interest.
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Don’t chase a goal, because goal change when we acquire new knowledge. We don’t want to be pilot/doctor anymore. Rather, focus on yourself and set a short-term goal which serves you the best. H/t Farnam Street.
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“If you let your learning lead to knowledge, you become a fool. If you let your learning lead to action, you become wealthy.” Don’t be an analyst.
When confused among various opporuntities, here are some question to help -
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Is it a one-time opportunity?
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What are you optimizing for - learning, brand, travel, people?
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Don’t be a donkey - “a donkey who is standing halfway between a pile of hay and a bucket of water. He just keeps looking left to the hay, and right to the water, trying to decide. Hay or water, hay or water? He’s unable to decide, so he eventually falls over and dies of both hunger and thirst. A donkey can’t think of the future. If he did, he’d realize he could clearly go first to drink the water, then go eat the hay.”
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What’s the one reason you are doing it? There needs to be one decisive reason, and the worthiness of the path should be measured against that one reason. My personal favorite, h/t Reid Hoffman
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What would the best version of you decide to do?
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What would you do if you knew that you wouldn’t fail?
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If you can figure out what the game is rather than how to play it — it’s pretty obvious how to play it — then you’re going to do well.